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【本期主题】Capital Scarcity and Industrial Decline: Evidence from 172 Real Estate Booms in China


In geographically segmented credit markets, local real estate booms can divert capital away from manufacturing firms, create capital scarcity, increase local real interest rates, lower real wages, and cause underinvestment and relative decline in the industrial sector. Using exogenous variation in the administrative land supply across 172 Chinese cities, we show that the predicted variation in real estate prices does indeed cause substantially higher capital costs for manufacturing firms, reduce their bank lending, lower their capital intensity and labor productivity, weaken firms’ financial performance, and reduce their TFP growth by economically significant magnitudes. This evidence highlights macroeconomic stability concerns associated with real estate booms.

报告人】Harald Hau Professor of Economics and Finance, University of Geneva

时 间】11月05日(周一)     上午10:00

地 点】明德主楼0515b汉青教师交流室

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Harald Hau is a Professor of Economics and Finance at the University of Geneva, Senior Chair at the Swiss Finance Institute and Director of the Geneva Finance Research Institute. He used to work at INSEAD – Business School as Associate Professor during 2001 to 2011. He obtained a master’s degree in Economics from the University of Virginia and a Ph.D in Economics from Princeton University. His work has been published inReview of Finance,Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of International Economics, Journal of the European Economic Association, Review of Financial Studies,and others.